For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.328 — Luis Arraez batting against Charlie Morton.
- 0.322 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.315 — Luis Robert batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.309 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.305 — Harold Ramirez batting against George Kirby.
- 0.305 — Bo Bichette batting against Kutter Crawford.
- 0.296 — Zach Remillard batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.295 — Yandy Diaz batting against George Kirby.
- 0.294 — Tim Anderson batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.291 — Freddie Freeman batting against Daniel Lynch.
Arraez looks like a more normal league leading hitter against Morton today. The two have faced each other, Arraez going two for five with a walk and no strikeouts.
Remillard is a new name on the list. The rookie played just twelve games, but is hitting an Arraez like .394/.444/.455. Muller allowed a .370 BABIP this season.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.328, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting against Charlie Morton.
- 0.305, 0.732 — Bo Bichette batting against Kutter Crawford.
- 0.291, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting against Daniel Lynch.
- 0.305, 0.717 — Harold Ramirez batting against George Kirby.
- 0.322, 0.715 — Andrew Benintendi batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.315, 0.710 — Luis Robert batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.286, 0.706 — Nick Castellanos batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.309, 0.697 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.295, 0.696 — Yandy Diaz batting against George Kirby.
- 0.266, 0.694 — Joey Meneses batting against Zack Wheeler.
The NN gives Arraez a much bigger lead as the top pick. Benintendi comes in as the consensus double down choice. He owns a .337 BABIP, and only strikes out in 14% of his plate appearances this season.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!