For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.330 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.324 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adrian Houser.
- 0.317 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.317 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jakob Junis.
- 0.315 — Yandy Diaz batting against Jakob Junis.
- 0.307 — Jeff McNeil batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.307 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.301 — Austin Riley batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.293 — Wilmer Flores batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.290 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Bailey Falter.
Acuna and Freeman battle for second behind Arraez for the NL Batting Title. Freeman is up .339 to .337 at the moment.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.285, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against Cristian Javier.
- 0.324, 0.739 — Freddie Freeman batting against Adrian Houser.
- 0.317, 0.727 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jakob Junis.
- 0.330, 0.727 — Ronald Acuna batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.317, 0.719 — Michael Harris II batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.315, 0.719 — Yandy Diaz batting against Jakob Junis.
- 0.278, 0.702 — Corey Seager batting against Lucas Giolito.
- 0.307, 0.698 — Jeff McNeil batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.307, 0.696 — Orlando Arcia batting against Luis Severino.
- 0.281, 0.696 — Nolan Arenado batting against Spenser Watkins.
Javier yields few hits, which is why Arraez doesn’t make the Log5 list. Freeman is the consensus first pick, Acuna the consensus second pick. It looks like another good night for the Braves offensively.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Wilmer Flores was scratched from yesterday’s lineup due to an ear infection, so availability today is questionable.
Thanks. Although he should be tougher and play through the pain. 🙂