For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.308 — Matt McLain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.298 — Nolan Arenado batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.292 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.290 — Corey Seager batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.290 — T.J. Friedl batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.288 — Luis Arraez batting against Justin Verlander.
- 0.287 — Elly De La Cruz batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.287 — Ketel Marte batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.286 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Paul Blackburn.
This looks like a good day for the young Reds. McLain and De La Cruz strike out a ton, but Syndergaard’s K rate is rather low, so they should be able to put the ball in play.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.288, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Justin Verlander.
- 0.274, 0.713 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wade Miley.
- 0.290, 0.708 — Corey Seager batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.298, 0.703 — Nolan Arenado batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.308, 0.702 — Matt McLain batting against Noah Syndergaard.
- 0.276, 0.702 — Harold Ramirez batting against Ryan Walker.
- 0.292, 0.695 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.277, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.286, 0.692 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting against Ryan Walker.
Arraez’s probabilities are coming down with his slump, and facing the good pitching of the Astros. He only faced Verlander three times in his career with no hits, but no strikeouts.
Arenado and McLain tie for the consensus top pick. Arenado is not walking much this season, but kept his batting average high, making him a good choice for extending a streak.
Note that Maikel Garcia of the Royals is working on a seventeen game hit streak. He faces Luis Castillo, who is very good at limiting hits.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!