National treasure David Laurila spoke with observers of the Orioles about the most underrated players on the team. Two of them picked Ryan O’Hearn. Here’s Danielle Allentuck:

“He has kind of been the guy who, whenever they need the big hit — he’s either coming off the bench or already in the lineup — has been providing it,” the Baltimore Banner reporter told me. “He’s been that kind of spark for them. He’s turning his career around here. We’re talking underrated, and I don’t think a lot of people know about him. He’s not the big name. He wasn’t a big superstar, but he’s come here and turned things around for himself, and the team.”

FanGraphs.com

O’Hearn comes up quite often in the top ten of the Beat the Streak Picks. Those picks are based on something I call hit average, which is hits per plate appearance (PA). If you want to know the probability of a player getting a hit in a game, it’s easier to use the hit average than batting average, which is a conditional probability. Players with high hit averages tend to post high batting averages without walking very much. That’s what changed about O’Hearn this season. His first five seasons, he was a low BA player with a big gap between his BA and OBP. He also struck out quite a bit. This season, he’s batting .305 with a .338 OBP, with a decent reduction in Ks. His probability of a hit is much higher, so it’s not surprising people perceive him as getting big hits. He’s making a lot more contact on pitches outside the strike zone, and good things appear to be happening with that adjustment.