Tom Tango posted this about the NL MVP race between Ronald Acuna and Mookie Betts:
Sometimes feats trump statistics. A good example of this happened in 2012, when Miguel Cabrera won the MVP. Mike Trout beat him in rWAR 10.5 to 7.1 and in fWAR 10.1 to 7.3. Cabrera, however, won the Triple Crown, a feat that many thought we would never see again.
Today, Betts leads Acuna 8.3 to 8.1 in rWAR and 8.2 to 8.0 in fWAR. It’s really close, and one can make very good arguments for either player. Acuna owns the feat however, stealing 68 bases and hitting 41 home runs. That gives Acuna the highest power speed number ever, 51.2 breaking the old record of 43.9 set by Alex Rodriguez in 1998.
Home runs and stolen bases have vastly different values, and the stolen base value is dependent on the run environment. Stolen bases are a one-run strategy. They are valuable when runs are scarce. Managers throughout history have been more likely to steal in a low run environment, as it’s more worth the risk of an out on the bases. The new rules did not change the break even point of stolen bases versus caught stealing, they simply lowered the risk of getting caught.
The bottom line is that stolen bases are just not that valuable, they are simply entertaining.
On top of that, the Braves are slugging .501 as a team, and likely will set the record for slugging percentage by a team. Slugging percentage (or more precise, average) is a measure of distance. A .500 slugging average means than the average Braves at bat ends with the batter halfway to first base. High slugging averages move base runners a long distance, which is why sluggers tend to lead the league in RBI. Since Acuna is a great baserunner, and the whole team hits for power, would he score many fewer runs if he didn’t steal at all? How often would he not score from first base on a double?
I used one of the Bill James runs created formulas to estimate how many runs the Braves scored. The formula includes stolen bases and caught stealing. It has the Braves at 908 runs versus their actual total of 916. I then removed stolen bases and caught stealing from the calculation, asking how many runs the Braves would score if they never attempted a steal. The answer is 899. By this estimate the Braves, who are an excellent 125 for 150 stealing, added just nine runs with those 150 attempts.
Acuna’s feat is nice, it’s entertaining, but it doesn’t add a lot of value given the offense of the Braves and the league.
Betts and Acuna may be having the greatest lead-off seasons ever. I have no problem with either of them winning the MVP. 0.2 WAR is noise. Voters might very well decide that Acuna, due to the steals, is more entertaining that Betts, and that entertainment has value. They may decide that Betts’ versatility on defense give him the edge. I just hope that voters don’t overvalue Acuna’s steals in terms of run production.