To my great delight, two of the possible massive tie scenarios improved last night. J.P. Crawford of the Mariners gets a lot of the credit as he hit a bases loaded, two out, walk off double to turn a 2-1 Texas lead into a 3-2 Seattle victory. A three-way tie for the AL West occurs if the Mariners take the next three games from the Rangers (1/8), and Houston takes two of three from the Diamondbacks (3/8). a probability of 0.0469.
With the Blue Jays beating the Yankees 6-0, a three-way tie for the bottom two wild card slots including Seattle and Houston stands at 0.0351, down 0.0001.
Rain threw a monkey wrench into the NL Wild Card race as the weather forced a suspension of the game between the Marlins and the Mets with Miami leading 2-1 at the start of the bottom of the ninth inning. The game will be completed Monday. With the Diamondbacks falling to the White Sox 3-1 and the Cubs losing to Atlanta 5-3, the probability of a four way tie including the Reds is now 0.00225, and the probability of a three-way tie among the top three teams is 0.0296.
For today, the best results would be:
- The Marlins scuttle the Pirates.
- The Blue Jays fall to the Rays.
- The Cubs defeat the Brewers.
- The Reds clip the wings of the Cardinals.
- The Astros defang the Diamondbacks.
- Seattle wins over the Rangers.
That gives us six meaningful games with three days left in the season, an advantage of expanding the playoffs.