November 20, 2023

Pros and Cons of Ohtanti

Conor Ryan at Boston.com lays out the case for the Red Sox signing or passing on Shohei Ohtani as a free agent. Note that much of the pro section is intangilble:

But with Boston in a position to flex some fiscal muscle, signing Ohtani would give the Red Sox instant credibility — and steal headlines in a sports market where the beloved franchise has fallen behind other teams in town.

Not only would the sight of Ohtani donning a Red Sox jersey spike ticket sales, TV ratings, and merchandise revenues, it would once again fixate Boston as one of the epicenters of baseball during the summer — with tangible star power (rather than a fading reputation) leading to more featured airtime on the national airwaves.

Boston.com

The author does point out that Ohtani’s ability to spray the ball makes him a good fit for Fenway.

The big con, of course, is uncertainty:

Not only is Ohtani set to turn 30 next July, but he already has some significant injury concerns that have plagued him for years.

Beyond the current elbow issues that will keep him off the mound in 2024, Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. Even though he rebounded from that first major procedure, there’s an awful lot of wear and tear that’s been put on that elbow.

Boston.com

At this point, I would pay for Ohtani’s bat, but build in incentives for pitching. Or sign him to a long term deal for his bat with an opt-out after two seasons so if he does return to the mound, he can seek a better deal. Otherwise this may be very similar to the Angels deal with Albert Pujols where LAaheim paid him three times the money the Cardinals did for one seventh of the WAR.

I freely admit my bias against Ohtani as a two-way player. The fact that he lasted almost three seasons hitting and pitching at a high level is remarkable. I felt the same way in the 1980s about Bo Jackson as a two sport player. I would rather have had fifteen years of each of them being a great position player than three or four years of them doing something remarkable.

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