January 8, 2024

Dodgers Pay for Power

The Dodgers signed Teoscar Hernandez to what appears to be a large, one-year deal:

Outfielder Teoscar Hernández and the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed on a one-year, $23.5 million contract, sources told ESPN on Sunday, adding another All-Star bat to the lineup of a team that’s already the World Series favorite.

The deal, which is pending a physical, includes deferrals, though not nearly to the level of Ohtani putting off $680 million of his 10-year, $700 million contract for 10 years. Of Hernández’s $23.5 million salary, $8.5 million will be deferred, to be paid off between 2030 and 2039, according to sources.

ESPN.com

With the deferral, the Dodgers are paying him more like a two WAR player than a two and a half WAR player. Still that seems high to me.

Through his seasonal age 26 season, Hernandez hit .237/.304/.476. He then produced a two-season peak of .295/.345/.538. From 2022 on, his slash line came in at .262/.310/.460. So while power is still his strong point, he is somewhat more of a singles hitter than he was through his prime.

It’s quite possible the Dodgers can get his numbers higher. We’ve seen them take hitters that did not appear to be that good and turn them into monsters. For one year it’s worth the gamble.

This also stresses something discussed in the past, that teams are willing to pay bigger salaries short term. I understand that players want some longer term security, but they might actually do better overall with one to three year free agent deals. I suspect that a five-year deal for Hernandez might have netted him $60 million, but he’s about 40% of the way there with this offer.

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