February 22, 2024

The Fall of Tim Anderson

Tim Anderson signed a one-year deal with the Marlins worth $5 million:

Anderson, 30, joins Miami following a season to forget in 2023. After he played for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, Anderson struggled on both offense and defense for the Chicago White Sox while dealing with a sprained left knee and right shoulder soreness.

His .582 OPS was the lowest among all qualified hitters in the major leagues last season while he ranked last in defensive runs saved for shortstops at minus-16. After hitting over .300 in four consecutive seasons, the eight-year veteran saw his batting average drop to .245 in 2023, and his strikeout rate spiked by 8%. He went nearly four months without hitting a home run, finishing with just one (on July 29).

ESPN.com

Anderson averaged 3.2 WAR a season from 2018-2022, including a 2.4 WAR in the short 2020 season. If he had become a free agent a year earlier, he might be looking at a $25 million to $30 million a year contract. Instead, the league values him at about half a WAR.

Note that his batting average fell due to his higher K rate and much lower home run rate. His BABIP came in at .323 in 2023. That’s still a good number, although well below his .348 career mark.

Given this contract, I have to believe that teams don’t see Anderson’s 2023 season as a fluke. Either they think the injuries may hamper him long term, or that the league finally figured out they can pitch to a hitter who is not very selective at the plate.

It could be that the shoulder problem sapped Anderson’s power for good. If so, he needs to adjust to become more Luis Arraez like, putting the ball in play with authority. His BABIP shows he can do that, but he needs to be more selective and wait for his pitch.

Kudos to the Marlins for making this deal. There is little downside here, and plenty of upside if Anderson can get back to a decent batting average.

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