The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished second in the Majors and the National League in 2023 with 5.59 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Dave Roberts batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. (Since Gavin Lux did not play last season, I used the FanGraphs projection.) That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.57
- Probable lineup: 5.49
- Worst lineup: 5.20
- Regressed lineup: 4.92
The Dodgers do a good job of getting the sections of the lineup correct. The LAT lists a number of top 30 lineups with Teoscar Hernandez, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux at the bottom. Most of the lineups put Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman in the top four. Having the right people in the right sections allows the Dodgers order to capture most of it’s potential.
The a difference the LAT and the projected Dodgers order comes from the use of Betts. The LAT sees Betts hitting behind the table setters due to his power. Freeman projects to a higher OBP and a lower slugging percentage than Betts, and that is the reason for the LAT putting Freeman at the top of the order. Note that Freeman makes a better lead-off hitter for other reasons. His power right now sits in doubles, not home runs. He also stole more bases than Betts in 2023, and with a better SB%. Betts was the home run hitter.
Players tend to have a comfort level with various slots, and I suspect Betts will want to lead-off more than bat third or fourth. The same may be true of Freeman, being more comfortable batting behind the two greats at the top of the order. Just because someone has the tools for a particular slot doesn’t mean they will excel in that spot. Management needs to be aware of what works for a player to get the most out of them.
The Dodgers lineup is not as deep as the Braves lineup, but there is so much talent packed into the top of the order that Los Angeles will give the Braves a run for the league lead in runs scored once again.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.