Team Offense, Seattle Mariners

The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished twelfth in the Majors and seventh in the American League in 2023 with 4.68 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Scott Servais batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.91
Probable lineup: 4.86
Worst lineup: 4.64
Regressed lineup: 4.51

This is a good lineup, capturing 81% of the optimum value. The Mariners nail the bottom of the order, limiting the plate appearances of their less productive hitters. Servais bats Josh Rojas ninth, giving Julio Rodriguez in the second slot two batters ahead of him to set the table.

The LAT prefers Rodriguez in the clean-up slot, with Mitch Garver batting second. This strikes me as a speed issue. J.P. Crawford and Rodriguez can score from first on long hits much more easily than Garver.

The LAT would rather bat Cal Raleigh sixth than fifth, and I tend to agree with the LAT here. I understand Raleigh’s strength as a hitter lies in his power. If you think of the lineup as consisting of sequences, the four hitter needs to be able to both drive in table setters and set the table for the batters below. Having four and five set the table for a weak OBP/strong Isolated Power hitter should generate more offense.

The Mariners are doing a number of things right here. Note that this is a mature lineup, however. While Rodriguez should have a long career in front of him, most of the rest are about to transition out of their prime years. The time for this batting order to shine is now.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.

March 3, 2024

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