The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished tied for fourteenth in the Majors and eighth in the American League in 2023 with 4.60 runs scored per game.
This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That John Schneider batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.83
- Probable lineup: 4.74
- Worst lineup: 4.53
- Regressed lineup: 4.43
The Blue wound up tied with the Diamondbacks in scoring in 2023, and their 2024 best lineups both put a catcher in the leadoff slot (see previous post). Alejandro Kirk posts an excellent OBP without a lot of power. Unlike the Diamondbacks, who have a good alternative, the Blue Jays pencil in George Springer at the top despite his fading ability to get on base.
It seems there are a number of out-of-place hitters in this order. Justin Turner no longer produces the power to bat clean-up. Kevin Kiermaier bats too high and Kirk bats too low. Only at the bottom of the order do the Blue Jays get it right with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Cavan Biggio.
Looking at the projections, and taking into account Kirk as a catcher, I would probably go with a Bo Bichette, Turner, Kirk, Vlad Guerrero Jr. top of the order,
No matter the order, it’s time for the four children Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero, and Daulton Varsho to live up to expectations. They are all in their primes now. It’s time to deliver big seasons.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Texas Rangers
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Houston Astros
- Chicago Cubs
- Baltimore Orioles
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Cincinnati Reds
- Minnesota Twins
- Boston Red Sox
- Seattle Mariners
- San Diego Padres
- Arizona Diamondbacks
*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.