The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels finished sixteenth in the Majors and ninth in the American League in 2023 with 4.56 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Ron Washington batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.99
• Probable lineup: 4.79
• Worst lineup: 4.63
• Regressed lineup: 4.46

When I saw Mickey Moniak listed as the Angels leadoff hitter with a projected .298 OBP, I thought I did something wrong, like copy a batting average instead an OBP, but the FanGraphs projection is even worse. I thought maybe whoever maintained the lineups but Moniak in the wrong slot. They did not, and the article confirming the position in the order makes things even worse:

Moniak, who is expected to see some time as leadoff hitter this year along with Luis Rengifo, was aggressive at the plate last year, drawing just nine walks in 323 plate appearances. 

MLB.com

Moniak and Rengifo bat 1-2 in the worst lineups drawn up by the LAT. In the best lineups, the LAT can decide if Moniak or Rengifo should bat eighth, reserved for the worst hitter on the team.

That is huge mistake by Washington. The Angels lineup as projected is pretty good, nearly five runs a game, but this strategy gives away 0.2 runs per game. That’s three wins over a season in a tough division.

A big part of a manager’s job is to put players in a position to succeed. Part of that is recognizing their strengths and where those strengths do the most good. Moniak’s strength lies in hitting the ball hard. He strikeouts a ton and doesn’t draw walks. So the hits when they come drive runners around the bases. He is an end of an offensive sequence hitter, not the one who starts it.

Fortunately for the Angles, how good or bad the offense will be depends more on the health of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. If Rendon especially comes back to anywhere near his former glory it will be a productive offensive year in Anaheim.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Atlanta Braves
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Texas Rangers
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Houston Astros
• Chicago Cubs
• Baltimore Orioles
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Minnesota Twins
• Boston Red Sox
• Seattle Mariners
• San Diego Padres
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Toronto Blue Jays

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.