The division previews continue with the NL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Atlanta Braves

• Position Player RC/G Average: 6.14
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.96
• Core Winning Percentage: .706

The Braves win super-team status going into the 2024 season. They hold the best RC/G average in the division for core offenses. There are only one of a handful of teams in the majors with a projected core pitching RC/G under 4.0. That combination results in the highest projected core winning percentage in the majors.

In looking at offenses, most team struggle to find one hitter projecting to over 6.0 RC/Game. The Braves boast four of them. Three hitters, Matt Olson, Austin Riley*, and Ronald Acuna Jr. all stand over 7.0 RC/G. It’s not a perfect lineup. Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelanic are a bit weak in power, but at least are not out machines.

*Riley is the George Harrison of the Braves. Really great, but overshadowed by two even greater hitters.

Note that this is a young lineup as well. Olson is the oldest player of the nine, and he turns 30 on Friday. Youth bring high proficiency at a reasonable cost, the Braves trade mark.

The rotation boasts a great young starter in Spencer Strider, three solid veterans, and reclamation project Chris Sale. Sale walked five and struck out 23 in 14 2/3 spring innings, so that might turn out to be four solid veterans.

They are easily the team to beat in the division, and maybe in the majors.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.76
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.85
• Core Winning Percentage: .691

The Phillies projection puts them in spitting distance of the Braves. Philadelphia owns the best core pitching projection in division with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the way. The three-four starters, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez project to allow RC/G in the low fours, about half a run better per game than the veterans occupying the Braves 3-4 slots.

This means the Phillies offense doesn’t need to be as good as the Braves offense to win, but they are still really good. They also start three hitters who project to over 6.00 RC/G. There probably is upside to Trea Turner‘s 6.06 projection, as he hit poorly through most of 2023.

A big difference with the Braves lineup comes from age. The Phillies star hitters are mostly past prime, and players in their 30s can fall off quickly. Still the Phillies look like one of the best teams in the NL. We could see the top two winning percentages in the league in this division, another example of a great team having to settle for a wild card.

New York Mets

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.15
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.75
• Core Winning Percentage: .540

I suspect the Mets will improve this season. They came in at -5 wins compared to their Pythagorean projection, and regression to the mean tends to balance that out year to year.

The offense looks a bit weak at this point, but hope exists. Brett Baty hit extremely well in the minors, and with some MLB experience under his belt, there is likely quite a bit of upside to his projection. Pete Alonso produced an off year in 2023, but is still in his prime. Getting J.D. Martinez into the lineup eventually will help.

On the other hand, it’s a rather old lineup, and that could balance the gains from the youngsters doing better.

The starting staff fails to impress. These are older veterans who project to be okay, but the great Mets franchises had great starting pitching.

The main problem with the Mets right now is the lack of a plan. The Braves find great young talent and sign them to long-term contracts. The let free agents go, and manage to replace them with younger, more cost-effective talent. The Phillies do a great job of evaluating free agents and improving the team through that route. It may not be as long-term effective as the Braves strategy, but the Phillies, for the third year in a row, are perfectly capable of winning a World Series.

The Mets have not given any plan a chance to work. With a new front office, they appear to have pulled back from the “Win it all now!” mentality. The Mets have the money to be the Dodgers or the Braves or the Astros. That doesn’t mean winning now, but it could lead to a dominant team for many years.

Miami Marlins

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.03
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.73
• Core Winning Percentage: .531

I don’t see where the Marlins obviously improved over 2023. Losing Sandy Alcantara hurts a great deal, although he will help out as much as possible. The Tim Anderson signing is a high risk, high reward move, but does not represent an obvious increase in the team’s offense. Luis Arraez probably regresses to his career averages, which is still great, but I don’t expect him to hit .350 again. The offense is not young; one would hope there are prospects coming up through the system.

On the other hand, the rotation is very young, so there is potential for upside there. If the core can get their RC/G down half a run, the Marlins are looking at a third place instead of a fourth place finish. Max Meyer is the key here, as his minor league numbers are much better than Ryan Weathers.

Like the Mets, the Marlins went through some front office upheaval over the last few seasons, so a good plan may not be in place yet.

Washington Nationals

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.71
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 5.58
• Core Winning Percentage: .416

Why did the Nationals stand pat after a better than expected season? The projections for this core are just terrible. One would think that eating the last year of Patrick Corbin‘s contract and replacing him with their best AAA pitcher might improve the team, but no, the Nationals would rather pay Corbin to pitch badly.

On offense, only three hitters project to be better than 5.0 RC/Game. That should be the floor for most core hitters. Joey Meneses ranks highest at 5.21 runs per game. They did add Jesse Winker at 5.16 RC/G, but that’s hardly a difference maker.

I suspect the National believe that Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore will make strides this season. Here’s an article that talks about their makeup. That’s all fine, but Gray and Gore are not young any more. They are in their early primes and neither delivered an outstanding season in their careers.

There may be prospects knocking on the door. The last CBA was designed to clear the way for those youngsters coming to the majors sooner than later. We’ll see how many come up in time to give the Nationals seven years of control, and how many miss on super two status. The opening day core looks like a team tanking to me.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Atlanta Braves 45%
• Philadelphia Phillies 35%
• New York Mets 11%
• Miami Marlins 8%
• Washington Nationals 1%

There should be a tight race for first and second, and a tight race for third and fourth. Note that the Nationals have the chance to be historically bad, which will help the Mets and Marlins compete for a wild card, much like the A’s last season helped the AL West put three teams into playoff contention last year.