The division previews finish with the AL East. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcels projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

New York Yankees

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.61
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.18
• Core Winning Percentage: .643

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both project to over eight RC/G. Two players generating that much offense covers a lot of ills. That’s especially true when the team owns core set of pitchers who are the best in the division. Note that despite a poor season in 2023, Carlos Rodon still projects to be very good, as his 2023 makes up a small part of the projection. Nestor Cortes also comes in below four RC/G, and Gerrit Cole is waiting in the wings. The Yankees right now have the depth to sustain the Cole injury.

That wasn’t true of the offense in 2023, and may not be true this season. I suspect there is upside with Anthony Rizzo regaining his brain health. Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton both hit well in spring training. If those two sluggers are back to their 80% of their old selves, the Yankees have the depth to survive a stubbed toe. This could be a very good season in The Bronx.

Baltimore Orioles

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.39
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
• Core Winning Percentage: .615

The Orioles lineup consists of seven players in their prime years. The front office brought along their talent to mature at the same time, and now they have a chance to build on a division championship. With catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson each over 6.0 RC per game, the Orioles project to be the strongest team in the division up the middle. Offensively, the biggest weakness appears to be at first base; that position, however, tends to be easy to fix.

The rotation should benefit from the addition of Corbin Burnes. That takes pressure off the young Grayson Rodriguez to be the ace. The pair offer a pretty good 1-2 punch for an excellent offense. Bringing in a good veteran like Burnes is what young teams do when they are ready to go to the next level.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.30
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.26
• Core Winning Percentage: .608

I have my doubts about the Rays this season. They are weak offensively up the middle in a division where everyone else is pretty good. As far as the bat is concerned, Jose Caballero is no Wander Franco. Losing both Franco and McClanahan for a full season is a very tough blow.

I do suspect the Rays put a very good defensive team on the field, however, something that is not measured here. If a good defense can drive down the pitcher core RC/G by a quarter of a run, that might give them enough to compete for the division.

This is a good team, I just don’t think they compare as well to recent seasons.

Boston Red Sox

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.44
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.59
• Core Winning Percentage: .591

The Red Sox project to own the second best offense in the division in 2024. We know that Rafael Devers shines at the plate, but Triston Casas looks ready to join him. He showed signs of getting on base at a high rate and hitting for power. As he moves into his age 24 season, it’s the right year to take that to the next level.

In addition, there is an upside to a healthy Trevor Story. He ranked in spring training. If can produce a run over his 4.62 projection, the Red Sox core winning percentage should move over .600.

The pitching is the weak spot for the team. Giving Bryan Bello a long-term contract indicates the team believes he will improve his 5.09 RC/G projection, and we’ll see if he can assume the mantle of ace this year. It’s not a bad rotation, and the offense and a decent bullpen could keep them in a division race. It’s a year to be bullish on the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.27
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.39
• Core Winning Percentage: .590

The Blue Jays rank last in the division in Core Winning Percentage, but just a hair behind the Red Sox. In fact this is not a bad team, they just play in a very good, balanced division. I can’t help but think the Blue Jays should be at the top, not the bottom.

Five years ago this was a team on the rise. They brought a long a large group of young players, almost all of them related to other major leaguers. Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette turned into stars, and Guerrero peaked in 2021 at seasonal age 22.

The veterans the Blue Jays brought in to complement that group are now old, and not producing as much. The group projects to be the lowest scoring team in the division. Guerrero is still young enough to find his 2021 form again, but the window is closing on this group to produce a championship.

The pitching side is okay. Alek Manoah‘s fall from the rotation hurt, but maybe the shoulder issue that showed up this spring actually started last year? When a player gets that bad that fast, it’s a good bet there is an injury. If he comes back at full strength in a month or two, that will be a positive for the rest of the season. Right now, however, it looks like the Jays could finish over .500 and last in the division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• New York Yankees 30%
• Baltimore Orioles 25%
• Tampa Bay Rays 20%
• Boston Red Sox 13%
• Toronto Blue Jays 12%

Any of these teams might get hot, might make the right trade, or find a prospect is ready to contribute and pull away from the rest. In an odd way, despite this being a good division, I can imagine the AL East not sending a wild card to the playoffs. The five teams might beat up on each other enough that none of them have an outstanding record. The upside is that every AL East intra division series should be a good one.