For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.310 — Bo Bichette batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.303 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.291 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.280 — Ernie Clement batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.279 — Davis Schneider batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.277 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.274 — Cavan Biggio batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.274 — Luis Garcia batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.274 — George Springer batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.273 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Freeland.
This list is more about Freeland than the Blue Jays hitters, although Bichette does well in the Beat the Streak lists. Freeland allowed a .296 BA since the start of 2022, and that’s well above league average. He pulls everyone up.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.310, 0.715 — Bo Bichette batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.251, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Charlie Morton.
- 0.303, 0.691 — Justin Turner batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.271, 0.685 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Bailey Ober.
- 0.255, 0.682 — Michael Harris II batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.252, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Yu Darvish.
- 0.277, 0.681 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.250, 0.679 — Jose Altuve batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.274, 0.676 — Luis Garcia batting against Alex Wood.
- 0.291, 0.670 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Freeland.
Bichette and Turner come in as the consensus double down picks. Turner has a long history of success against Freeland, facing him 53 times with 16 hits, three walks, two hit by pitches, and just two strikeouts. Turner gets the bat on the ball against Freeland. Bichette owns a seven game hit streak.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!