For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.297 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.294 — Jeremy Pena batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.289 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.286 — Mookie Betts batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.278 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.278 — Michael Harris II batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.275 — Ozzie Albies batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.270 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.270 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Wacha.
Note that the Padres and Braves play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games to get the pitching matchup correct.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of getting a hit:
- 0.268, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.257, 0.719 — Luis Arraez batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
- 0.297, 0.709 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.291, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.278, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.290, 0.703 — Steven Kwan batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.294, 0.698 — Jeremy Pena batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.286, 0.696 — Mookie Betts batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.270, 0.689 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Mantiply.
- 0.270, 0.686 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.278, 0.684 — Michael Harris II batting against Randy Vasquez.
You can double down with Luis Arraez today, or with consensus one-two picks Shohei Ohtani and Jose Altuve.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!