For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.323 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.320 — Luis Arraez batting against Braxton Garrett.
- 0.316 — Corey Seager batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.310 — Marcus Semien batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.307 — Leody Taveras batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.305 — Elias Diaz batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.305 — Jonah Heim batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.305 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.303 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.302 — Nathaniel Lowe batting against Ryne Nelson.
It looks like a good day for the Rangers. Duran owns a high K rate, but that comes with a .341 career BABIP, .375 this season.
Note that the Pirates and Tigers play a doubleheader in Detroit today, so be careful picking from those games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.320, 0.762 — Luis Arraez batting against Braxton Garrett.
- 0.323, 0.703 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.290, 0.702 — Mookie Betts batting against David Peterson.
- 0.290, 0.701 — Jose Altuve batting against George Kirby.
- 0.303, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.305, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.305, 0.699 — Elias Diaz batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.316, 0.698 — Corey Seager batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.288, 0.698 — Shohei Ohtani batting against David Peterson.
- 0.277, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Joey Estes.
Arraez and Duran tie for the consensus top pick. Note that Arraez continues to be off the chart when it comes to probability. This is the 11th day in a row with him in the top slot.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!