For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top batter versus pitcher hit average estimates:
- 0.315 — Salvador Perez batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.315 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.301 — Luis Arraez batting against Alec Marsh.
- 0.294 — Steven Kwan batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.287 — Maikel Garcia batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.284 — Freddy Fermin batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.280 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Aaron Brooks.
- 0.279 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.279 — Garrett Hampson batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.276 — Mookie Betts batting against Cal Quantrill.
Opponents hit Musgrove hard this season, as he allowed a .305/.374/.521 slash line. The BABIP against him stands at .348 versus a career mark of .294. He allowed ten home runs in 2024, matching his total of 2023. Perez and Witt stand well equipped to take advantage of that kind of pitcher.
The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.301, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting against Alec Marsh.
- 0.315, 0.711 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.315, 0.707 — Salvador Perez batting against Joe Musgrove.
- 0.294, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.279, 0.694 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.276, 0.691 — Mookie Betts batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.264, 0.687 — Jose Altuve batting against Joe Ryan.
- 0.262, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.273, 0.683 — Michael Harris II batting against Aaron Brooks.
- 0.269, 0.683 — Gio Urshela batting against Cooper Criswell.
Kwan returned from the illjured list on Friday and posted a three for four. Arraez went four for five on Friday to raise his league leading BA to .342. Arraez, Perez, and Witt are all tied for the consensus top pick, and since they are playing against each other, you have a one-stop game for your double down. Perez is three for six against Musgrove with no strikeouts or walks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!