For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top estimates of hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.335 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.298 — Jake Fraley batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.297 — William Contreras batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.288 — Jeremy Pena batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.283 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.283 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.277 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.275 — Christian Yelich batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.275 — Elias Diaz batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.274 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Andre Pallante.
The Padres list Arraez as day to day after his shoulder injury on Sunday, so the top picks go out to eleven just in case Arraez can’t play. He is working on an eight-game hit streak, as is Jake Fraley.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.335, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.297, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.271, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
- 0.288, 0.691 — Jeremy Pena batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.260, 0.691 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.283, 0.691 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.283, 0.691 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.298, 0.690 — Jake Fraley batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.260, 0.683 — Jose Iglesias batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.263, 0.683 — Amed Rosario batting against Jesus Luzardo.
Arraez continues to post high probabilities and gets the unanimous number one pick. Altuve and Contreras tie for the double down choice. Those two would be the top choices if Arraez can’t play.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!