For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top predicted hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.313 — Luis Arraez batting against Slade Cecconi.
- 0.295 — Adley Rutschman batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.285 — Randal Grichuk batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.284 — Blaze Alexander batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.284 — Ketel Marte batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.283 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.281 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.281 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.281 — Kevin Newman batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.281 — Connor Wong batting against Jake Woodford.
Arraez appears to be recovered from his Sunday injury as he went 3 for 4 on Wednesday to raise his BA to .337.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.313, 0.758 — Luis Arraez batting against Slade Cecconi.
- 0.281, 0.703 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.295, 0.689 — Adley Rutschman batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.271, 0.686 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.258, 0.683 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.281, 0.683 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.249, 0.681 — Freddie Freeman batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.281, 0.680 — Connor Wong batting against Jake Woodford.
- 0.283, 0.676 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.265, 0.674 — Salvador Perez batting against Tanner Bibee.
Rutschman owns a nine-game hit streak, currently the third longest active streak in the majors. Kwan is seven for 18, .389, with two walks, a hit by pitch, and one K against Singer. Kwan puts the ball in play against Singer.
Arraez is the unanimous top choice, while Rutschman comes in as the consensus double down pick. Rutschman owns an 8 for 20 with four walks and three strikeouts against Kikuchi. Note that the Orioles and Blue Jays play early.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!