For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these predicted to top averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.345 — Steven Kwan batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.319 — Luis Arraez batting against Scott McGough.
- 0.317 — Alec Burleson batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.317 — Masyn Winn batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.316 — Adley Rutschman batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.311 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.305 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.300 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against George Kirby.
- 0.299 — Nolan Arenado batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.298 — Jordan Westburg batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.298 — Jose Ramirez batting against Trevor Rogers.
It looks like a good day for the Orioles against Littell. Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson both hit him well in very limited plate appearances.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit in a game:
- 0.319, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting against Scott McGough.
- 0.345, 0.738 — Steven Kwan batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.300, 0.710 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against George Kirby.
- 0.311, 0.707 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.316, 0.701 — Adley Rutschman batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.296, 0.699 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.317, 0.698 — Alec Burleson batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.275, 0.697 — Harold Ramirez batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
- 0.284, 0.697 — Amed Rosario batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
- 0.285, 0.695 — Jose Iglesias batting against Taijuan Walker.
Arraez and Kwan are a good double down on most days, and they tie for consensus top pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!