Aaron Judge of the Yankees collected another double and another home run in the 6-4 win over the Dodgers. That gives Judge 46 extra-base hits in 67 Yankees games.

The record for extra-base hits in a season belongs to Babe Ruth, who hit 119 in 1921. This spreadsheet will track both Judge’s probability of breaking the extra-base hit record and his probability of reaching 100 extra-base hits. Note the last time someone reached that level was 2001, when four players did it, Barry Bonds, Todd Helton, Sammy Sosa, and Luis Gonzalez.

After Sunday’s game, the probability is still long for Judge to break the record, about 0.00005. That’s based on his Musings Marcels projection of 0.11 Extra-Base Hits per PA. For reaching 100, the probability is a much more likely 0.147. Using his Marcels rate, he projects to 93 Extra-Base Hits on the season, while his current pace would put him at 111 EXBH. That would rank third all time.

Stay tuned.