For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these high projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.324 — Steven Kwan batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.321 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.313 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Manaea.
- 0.301 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Stone.
- 0.298 — Ozzie Albies batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.296 — Michael Harris II batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.293 — Korey Lee batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.291 — Luis Robert batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.291 — Corey Julks batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.290 — Bo Bichette batting against Logan Allen.
Kwan owns a huge lead in the MLB batting race over Witt, but Kwan has a ways to go before he would qualify for the title. Both batters own hit streaks during which they are producing offense at a high rate. Witt’s fourteen game streak is tied for the longest in the majors right now, and he’s hitting .426 in those games. Kwan is hitting .500 during his eight game streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:
- 0.313, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Sean Manaea.
- 0.324, 0.729 — Steven Kwan batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.301, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Gavin Stone.
- 0.321, 0.711 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.287, 0.698 — Luis Rengifo batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.296, 0.694 — Michael Harris II batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.282, 0.693 — Gio Urshela batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.290, 0.691 — Bo Bichette batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.298, 0.689 — Ozzie Albies batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.263, 0.684 — Jose Iglesias batting against Matt Waldron.
The two systems agree on the top four, but in a different order. Kwan stands as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!