For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.342 — Luis Arraez batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.334 — Trea Turner batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.320 — Alec Bohm batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.292 — Connor Wong batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.289 — Edmundo Sosa batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.288 — Bryce Harper batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.287 — Luis Rengifo batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
- 0.280 — Jurickson Profar batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.280 — Jackson Merrill batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.275 — Alec Burleson batting against Braxton Garrett.
Turner is supposed to come off the illjured list today. Vazquez allowed a .341 BABIP this season, so that’s why so many Phillies make the list.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:
- 0.342, 0.769 — Luis Arraez batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.334, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.320, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.270, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.287, 0.695 — Luis Rengifo batting against Carlos Rodriguez.
- 0.292, 0.691 — Connor Wong batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.270, 0.687 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Cal Quantrill.
- 0.260, 0.686 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jon Gray.
- 0.270, 0.678 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Reese Olson.
- 0.257, 0.675 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against James Paxton.
The two systems agree on Arraez and Turner as the double down picks, but you may want to wait a couple of games to see how Turner looks at the plate. Bohm is a great double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!