For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.324 — Kevin Newman batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.321 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.318 — Randal Grichuk batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.318 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.314 — Ketel Marte batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.311 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.310 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.306 — Jake McCarthy batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.303 — Connor Wong batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.302 — Blaze Alexander batting against Patrick Corbin.
After two weak cups of coffee, Ramos is Heliot on wheels in 2024. He owns a .414 BABIP with a .241 isolated power for the Giants. He’s the only person to make the list not facing Corbin or Feltner. Newman always put the ball in play, but with a .323 BABIP this season it’s paying off.
The NN produces these batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.274, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Ranger Suarez.
- 0.311, 0.719 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.321, 0.718 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.324, 0.710 — Kevin Newman batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.260, 0.707 — Steven Kwan batting against Bryan Woo.
- 0.318, 0.706 — Randal Grichuk batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.277, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Waldron.
- 0.303, 0.696 — Connor Wong batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.310, 0.696 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.280, 0.696 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Luis Medina.
Arraez’s slump combined with facing Suarez brought his probability down a bit but he’s still decently ahead of the Dodgers playing at Coors. Newman and Ohtani tie for the consensus top pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!