For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.350 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.340 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.322 — Luis Garcia batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.316 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.314 — Royce Lewis batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.314 — Miguel Rojas batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.310 — Will Smith batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.310 — Jose Miranda batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.308 — Ildemaro Vargas batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.308 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Ty Blach.
It looks like a good day for the Dodgers as they play an afternoon game at Coors field. Most games are in the afternoon today to give an exclusive to the Rickwood Field game and what is turning out to be a memorial to Willie Mays. Get your picks in early.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.300, 0.746 — Luis Arraez batting against Bryse Wilson.
- 0.340, 0.739 — Freddie Freeman batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.350, 0.739 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.304, 0.728 — Steven Kwan batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.305, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.322, 0.708 — Luis Garcia batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.314, 0.707 — Royce Lewis batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.299, 0.706 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Mitch Spence.
- 0.300, 0.705 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.316, 0.695 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Littell.
Arraez comes out on top again, but today he’s not blowing away the field. San Diego does play the only late game of the day, so picking him runs the risk of him not starting and being unable to replace him.
Freeman and Ohtani tie for the consensus double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!