For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.371 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.330 — Trea Turner batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.318 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.314 — Jurickson Profar batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.313 — Alec Bohm batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.305 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.302 — Manny Machado batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.298 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.294 — Steven Kwan batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.294 — Bryce Harper batting against Casey Mize.
Arraez hasn’t faced Corbin much, but is two for six against him.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.371, 0.782 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.330, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.294, 0.727 — Steven Kwan batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.313, 0.711 — Alec Bohm batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.318, 0.702 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.314, 0.693 — Jurickson Profar batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.305, 0.689 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.283, 0.689 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.266, 0.688 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.302, 0.687 — Manny Machado batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.298, 0.687 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
There’s good agreement today between the two lists, with Arraez and Turner as the double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!