June 24, 2024

Best Team in the AL?

We have an odd situation in the AL. The Guardians own the best winning percentage at .653, but they are half a game behind the Yankees at .650.

I love these situations as it provides a moment to explain an important point in judging the standing of teams. First place is based on winning percentage, not on games back. Games back is a measure of the difference in games over .500. In almost all cases they agree on the ranking.

If you look at winning percentage as a long-term outcome, the Guardians would win 106 games at .653, the Yankees would win 105 games at .650. That’s why the Cleveland should be considered as having the best record in the AL.

Games back is 1/2*(Difference in games over .500). It’s a chase number. Right now, the Yankees are 24 games over .500 (52-28) while the Guardians are 23 games over .500 (49-26). 1/2(24-23) = 1/2. This came about because the Yankees played five more game that Cleveland. If the Guardians just made up the five games before the Yankees played again, we’d expect them to go 3-2 (.600) , gaining three half games for each win and lowing two half games for each loss, and the teams would be tied.

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