For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.330 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.321 — Steven Kwan batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
- 0.319 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.313 — Jose Miranda batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.309 — Royce Lewis batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.308 — Carlos Correa batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.306 — Luis Arraez batting against DJ Herz.
- 0.303 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.302 — Jeremy Pena batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.301 — Yainer Diaz batting against Ryan Feltner.
The Braves and Cardinals play a doubleheader on Wednesday to make up for Tuesday’s postponement. Be careful if you pick from those games.
It looks like a good day for the Astros. Despite their struggles, the offense ranks last in the AL in strikeouts. They also are near the bottom in walks, so as a group they do put the ball in play.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.306, 0.744 — Luis Arraez batting against DJ Herz.
- 0.321, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Grayson Rodriguez.
- 0.330, 0.731 — Jose Altuve batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.319, 0.713 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.300, 0.706 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.309, 0.703 — Royce Lewis batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.288, 0.703 — Amed Rosario batting against George Kirby.
- 0.283, 0.701 — Trea Turner batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.313, 0.698 — Jose Miranda batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.300, 0.696 — Adley Rutschman batting against Carlos Carrasco.
Arraez still leads the pack due to his great three-season hit average of .306, but he no longer blows away the field. Altuve and Kwan tie for the consensus top pick of the day.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!