For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.318 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.309 — Steven Kwan batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.306 — Jose Miranda batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.302 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.300 — Carlos Correa batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.292 — Royce Lewis batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.289 — Bryce Harper batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.280 — Willi Castro batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.279 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.275 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Chad Kuhl.
- 0.275 — Luis Rengifo batting against Jack Flaherty.
Turner kept coming up in the top ten during his time on the illjured list. Since he returned, he collected hits in seven of the eight games he played.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.309, 0.730 — Steven Kwan batting against Michael Wacha.
- 0.318, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.302, 0.706 — Alec Bohm batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.279, 0.697 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.306, 0.695 — Jose Miranda batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.275, 0.689 — Luis Rengifo batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.289, 0.688 — Bryce Harper batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.292, 0.687 — Royce Lewis batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.272, 0.685 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Jon Gray.
- 0.300, 0.682 — Carlos Correa batting against Jordan Montgomery.
Kwan and Turner tie for the consensus top pick, making them a good double down for the day. Of the players on both lists, Harper owns the longest current hit streak at eleven games.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!