For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.296 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.291 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
- 0.290 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.282 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.280 — Trea Turner batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.278 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.276 — Steven Kwan batting against Cole Ragans.
- 0.275 — Amed Rosario batting against Jake Irvin.
- 0.273 — Alec Burleson batting against Carson Spiers.
Cannon pitched 33 1/3 MLB innings with a very low walk rate and a not too high K rate. Teams so far put the ball in play against him, and he allowed a .343 BABIP. Note that his AA and AAA BABIPs were also high. Tovar Ks quite a bit but doesn’t walk much, and owns a .369 BABIP this season and a .340 mark for his career.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.282, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.290, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.276, 0.710 — Steven Kwan batting against Cole Ragans.
- 0.291, 0.706 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
- 0.280, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.275, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting against Jake Irvin.
- 0.278, 0.690 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.296, 0.690 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.272, 0.687 — Luis Rengifo batting against Reese Olson.
- 0.272, 0.686 — Yainer Diaz batting against Tylor Megill.
Older Fenway faithful might be slightly reminded of Wade Boggs when they see Arraez at the plate, although Boggs was more likely to work a walk to go with all his hits. Arraez, Altuve, and Ramirez all tie for the consensus top pick. Ramirez’s high ranking has more to do with his two previous seasons. In 2024, his OBP and power fell off a cliff. His .255 hit average in 2024 is well above the league average of .217, but well below his .278 average since the start of 2022, The Rays chose to release him, and he hasn’t done much with the Nationals yet. He’s a good example of a poor hitter who might actually do well in extending a streak,
Bryan Reynolds extended his streak to 24 games, and Yandy Diaz is now at 20 games. Reynolds probability of extending his streak is at .636, Diaz at .679.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!