For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.321 — Luis Arraez batting against Jon Gray.
- 0.315 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.304 — Steven Kwan batting against Erick Fedde.
- 0.304 — Trea Turner batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.302 — Connor Wong batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.299 — Christian Yelich batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.299 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.291 — Yainer Diaz batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.291 — William Contreras batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.289 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
Wong owns the longest current hit streak in the majors, sixteen games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.321, 0.753 — Luis Arraez batting against Jon Gray.
- 0.315, 0.725 — Jose Altuve batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.304, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Erick Fedde.
- 0.304, 0.720 — Trea Turner batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.272, 0.705 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitchell Parker.
- 0.299, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.291, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Dakota Hudson.
- 0.299, 0.700 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.302, 0.700 — Connor Wong batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.286, 0.699 — Luis Rengifo batting against Joey Estes.
The two systems agree on the top four this morning, so Arraez and Altuve stand as your double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!