July 4, 2024

The Limits of Offense

One thing I like about the All-Star starting lineups for 2024 is how they demonstrate the limits on putting together a great team. The lineup analysis here shows the AL squad capable of generating seven runs a game. Imagine a lineup with Adley Rutschman and Vladimir Guerrero bat eighth and ninth!

If you put that team in a 4.5 runs/game league, you would expect them to post a winning percentage of .708 or a 115-47 record. I like that number, as it is the mirror image of replacement level. Forty eight wins is sometimes used as replacement level, as it is the theoretical floor for wins by a major league team. So it’s not surprising, if you put together a superstar lineup, the ceiling for wins should be around 114.

It’s also the reason most organizations don’t try to have a lineup packed with superstars. Ninety five wins today means a trip to the playoffs. There’s no need to spend the money on the extra 20 wins, unless maybe you really need to win a World Series.

You can try getting really extreme with the LAT. Make a lineup of your favorite hitters, or even who you think are the greatest players at each position. Take their best season, or their three-year peak, and put in the OBP and Slugging percentages, and see how many runs you can generate. Maybe when I get time I’ll attempt this lineup:

  1. Barry Bonds, lf
  2. Willie Mays, cf
  3. Cal Ripken Jr., ss
  4. Babe Ruth, rf
  5. Ted Williams, dh
  6. Albert Pujols, 1b
  7. Mike Piazza, c
  8. Mike Schmidt, 3b
  9. Joe Morgan, 2b

Substitute as you like.

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