For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.325 — Steven Kwan batting against Kyle Harrison.
- 0.324 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.317 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.303 — Freddy Fermin batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.303 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.299 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.295 — Heliot Ramos batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.291 — Amed Rosario batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.288 — Salvador Perez batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287 — Jose Miranda batting against Hunter Brown.
Miranda set a Twins record with ten consecutive hits.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.317, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.325, 0.734 — Steven Kwan batting against Kyle Harrison.
- 0.324, 0.731 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.303, 0.723 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Schwellenbach.
- 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Joe Ryan.
- 0.303, 0.705 — Freddy Fermin batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287, 0.704 — Jose Miranda batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.291, 0.704 — Amed Rosario batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.273, 0.699 — Harold Ramirez batting against Lance Lynn.
- 0.272, 0.698 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bailey Falter.
Altuve was hit on the hand by a pitch Friday night and is considered day to day. Kwan stands at the consensus top pick with Arraez the consensus double down choice. Witt at Coors is a pretty good bet, however.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!