For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.376 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.327 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.322 — Donovan Solano batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.318 — Jurickson Profar batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.315 — Manny Machado batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.305 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.305 — Steven Kwan batting against Hayden Birdsong.
- 0.304 — Freddie Freeman batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.300 — Jose Miranda batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
- 0.296 — Corey Seager batting against Zack Littell.
It looks like a great day for the Padres as Nelson allowed a .313 BA this season on a .345 BABIP. He owns a low K rate, a low walk rate, and you can homer off him. This is the type of pitcher Arraez should punish. In their brief history, Arraez is one for six against Nelson, but put the ball in play each plate appearance.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.376, 0.782 — Luis Arraez batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.305, 0.725 — Steven Kwan batting against Hayden Birdsong.
- 0.304, 0.717 — Freddie Freeman batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.300, 0.712 — Jose Miranda batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
- 0.305, 0.709 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Dallas Keuchel.
- 0.322, 0.709 — Donovan Solano batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.327, 0.708 — Jackson Merrill batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.270, 0.703 — Jose Altuve batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
- 0.278, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Gordon.
- 0.263, 0.699 — Trea Turner batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
Nice to see Miranda high on the list here after collecting 12 hits in twelve consecutive at bats. His hit average this season stands at .302.
Arraez is the unanimous and runaway top pick for Sunday. Kwan, Merrill, and Solano all tie for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!