For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.312 — Jose Miranda batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.307 — Steven Kwan batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.303 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.297 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.287 — Tommy Pham batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.280 — Lenyn Sosa batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.280 — CJ Abrams batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.278 — Andrew Vaughn batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.278 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.278 — Carlos Correa batting against Chris Flexen.
Miranda received a day off on Sunday, but wound up going one for one in a pinch-hitting appearance. That extended his hit streak to eleven games, hitting .579 in those games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.307, 0.726 — Steven Kwan batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.312, 0.723 — Jose Miranda batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.303, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.278, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.297, 0.699 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.278, 0.671 — Carlos Correa batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.267, 0.671 — Starling Marte batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.280, 0.670 — CJ Abrams batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.249, 0.666 — Elias Diaz batting against Andrew Abbott.
- 0.277, 0.663 — Eloy Jimenez batting against Chris Paddack.
The NN flips Kwan and Miranda, so they are the consensus double down choices.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!