For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.344 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.316 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.310 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.306 — Christian Yelich batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.300 — William Contreras batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.300 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.299 — Yainer Diaz batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.292 — Trea Turner batting against Bobby Miller.
- 0.289 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.289 — Freddy Fermin batting against Andre Pallante.
Kwan comes out well ahead of everyone else. Maeda allows a .316 BABIP this season, well above his .284 career mark.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.344, 0.743 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.277, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting against Logan Gilbert.
- 0.316, 0.729 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.310, 0.721 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.292, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Bobby Miller.
- 0.288, 0.709 — Jose Miranda batting against Erick Fedde.
- 0.299, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.300, 0.703 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Trevor Rogers.
- 0.300, 0.701 — William Contreras batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.281, 0.700 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jose Quintana.
- 0.306, 0.700 — Christian Yelich batting against Quinn Priester.
Miranda extended his hit streak to twelve games on Monday.
Kwan is the unanimous top pick, while Altuve comes in as the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!