For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.307 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.293 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.292 — Andy Ibanez batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.287 — Gio Urshela batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.285 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
- 0.285 — Jake Fraley batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.280 — Luis Garcia batting against David Peterson.
- 0.278 — Amed Rosario batting against Nestor Cortes.
- 0.275 — Jose Altuve batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.275 — Trea Turner batting against Landon Knack.
- 0.275 — Heliot Ramos batting against Kevin Gausman.
Kwan slowed down a bit, batting .273/.314/.394 in his last sixteen games, but still managed to collect hits in twelve of those contests and post two three-hit games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.307, 0.730 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.275, 0.712 — Trea Turner batting against Landon Knack.
- 0.293, 0.711 — Jose Iglesias batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Roddery Munoz.
- 0.285, 0.703 — Harold Ramirez batting against David Peterson.
- 0.278, 0.695 — Amed Rosario batting against Nestor Cortes.
- 0.292, 0.687 — Andy Ibanez batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.287, 0.687 — Gio Urshela batting against Spencer Howard.
- 0.280, 0.686 — Luis Garcia batting against David Peterson.
- 0.262, 0.686 — Yainer Diaz batting against Roddery Munoz.
Note that the MLB hit average rose today to .218. MLB offense picked up recently, and a higher league hit averages makes everyone a tiny bit more likely to collect a hit.
Kwan stands as the unanimous top choice, while Iglesias comes in as the consensus double down pick. Note that Rosario is three for nine in his career against Cortes, one of the few matchups today with any kind of track record.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!