July 21, 2024

Historical Hall Futures

Tom Tango thought it would be a good exercise to run the data from the previous post for 20 year periods in the past. Here’s the list from players active in 1964:

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Al Kaline19593776Yes
Vada Pinson19633552
Mickey Mantle19563491Yes
Orlando Cepeda19623220Yes
Bill Mazeroski19613174Yes
Hank Aaron19583173Yes
Frank Robinson19603155Yes
Eddie Mathews19563141Yes
Ron Santo19643089Yes
Tony Kubek19612900
Carl Yastrzemski19642676Yes
Zoilo Versalles19642661
Roberto Clemente19592560Yes
Johnny Callison19632426
Brooks Robinson19612420Yes
Willie Davis19642347
Gus Bell19532277
Duke Snider19512232Yes
Curt Flood19622214
Nellie Fox19522200Yes
Tommy Davis19632191
Harvey Kuenn19552177
Dick McAuliffe19642171
Roy McMillan19542099
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 1964, through 1964.

So 24 players in 1964 and reached their 24 season with at least 2000 PA. Thirteen of them made the Hall of Fame as a player. Note that pre draft, there was a baby bonus rule that required teams to keep high priced amateurs in the majors the first year they signed. That’s why Al Kaline didn’t play in the minors.

Here’s the table for 1984.

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Robin Yount19804142Yes
Cesar Cedeno19753491
Rusty Staub19683302
Buddy Bell19762945
Butch Wynegar19802920
Rickey Henderson19832891Yes
Ted Simmons19742888Yes
Claudell Washington19792840
Garry Templeton19802764
Alan Trammell19822743Yes
Eddie Murray19802726Yes
Rick Manning19792672
Lloyd Moseby19842667
Terry Puhl19812587
Tim Raines19842559Yes
George Brett19772556Yes
Tim Foli19752538
Chris Speier19742522
Willie Randolph19792471
Greg Luzinski19752451
Alfredo Griffin19822429
Jason Thompson19792392
Jack Clark19802381
Carney Lansford19812320
Bob Horner19822277
Larry Parrish19782254
Jeff Burroughs19752227
Chet Lemon19792211
Derrel Thomas19752201
Gary Carter19782168Yes
Steve Sax19842140
Harold Baines19832137Yes
Sixto Lezcano19782106
Ryne Sandberg19842092Yes
Bill Buckner19742086
Lou Whitaker19812074
Greg Gross19772058
Glenn Hubbard19822041
Roy Howell19782040
Lee Mazzilli19792023
Jim Rice19772022Yes
Pete Rose19652011*
Darrell Porter19762009
Andre Dawson19792002Yes
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 1984, through 1984

The expansion era brought in more young players, 44 meeting the criteria. Twelve made the Hall of Fame with an asterisk for Pete Rose.

Here’s the table for 2004:

BatterAge 24 SeasonPAHOF
Ken Griffey Jr.19943606Yes
Alex Rodriguez20003515*
Roberto Alomar19923349Yes
Andruw Jones20013312
Adrian Beltre20033161Yes
Ruben Sierra19903130
Edgar Renteria20003038
Ivan Rodriguez19962868Yes
Albert Pujols20042728NE
Juan Gonzalez19942440
Gary Sheffield19932419
Carlos Baerga19932388
Barry Bonds19892388*
Cristian Guzman20022329
Eric Chavez20022276
Troy Glaus20012199
John Olerud19932186
Jimmy Rollins20032169
Derek Jeter19982147Yes
Adam Dunn20042112
Sammy Sosa19932052*
Robin Ventura19922022
Ben Grieve20002019
Scott Rolen19992011Yes
Johnny Damon19982006
2000 PA through Seasonal Age 24, active in 2004, through 2004

This group contains 25 players. Six were elected to the Hall of Fame, Albert Pujols is not yet eligible, while A-Rod, Bonds, and Sosa will not go in for PED use. So ten deserving out of 25.

Combing the results, we get 31 players elected to the hall, one who will go in on the first ballot, and four with asterisks. Let’s put Pujols in, so 32 out of 93 get elected, 34.4% and 38.7% if you include asterisks.

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