For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.344 — Jose Iglesias batting against Yonny Chirinos.
- 0.304 — Jarren Duran batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.301 — Connor Wong batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.298 — Aaron Judge batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.291 — Mark Vientos batting against Yonny Chirinos.
- 0.290 — Andy Ibanez batting against Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.290 — Rafael Devers batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.289 — Juan Soto batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.288 — Rob Refsnyder batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287 — Jose Altuve batting against Hogan Harris.
- 0.287 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287 — Gio Urshela batting against Carlos Carrasco.
Iglesias put the ball in play throughout his career with low walk and strikeout numbers. He combined that this season with a .405 BABIP, but in only 96 PA. Chirinos allowed a .363 BABIP this season in 25 innings. Note that the calculation will regress hit averages for both to the season mean, currently .218, but there is enough plate appearances both ways to get a high number. After regression, Chirinos’s 2024 hit average is .261, Iglesias is .289, so Log5 sees this matchup as very favorable to the hitter. The three year parameters are .255/.303, so anyway you look at it , Iglesias should mash against Chirinos. They have never faced each other.
Note that the Rays and Yankees play a 1 PM start, so if you want to double down on the dynamic duo, get your picks in early.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.344, 0.764 — Jose Iglesias batting against Yonny Chirinos.
- 0.286, 0.714 — Trea Turner batting against Bailey Ober.
- 0.282, 0.712 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Yilber Diaz.
- 0.304, 0.710 — Jarren Duran batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Hogan Harris.
- 0.284, 0.699 — Amed Rosario batting against Carlos Rodon.
- 0.301, 0.698 — Connor Wong batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.287, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.284, 0.692 — Miguel Andujar batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
- 0.274, 0.691 — Yainer Diaz batting against Hogan Harris.
Iglesias does very well in this analysis also, and it the unanimous top pick. Duran comes out as the consensus double down choice. The two are working on short hit streaks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!