For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.364 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.356 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.343 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.324 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.319 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.318 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.312 — Kevin Pillar batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.304 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.303 — Zach Neto batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.303 — Jurickson Profar batting against Patrick Corbin.
It looks like another good day for the Padres as they get to face Corbin. Arraez is just two for nine against him, including two Ks. Bogaerts is 3 for 5, Profar 3 for 10.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.364, 0.778 — Luis Arraez batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.343, 0.739 — Steven Kwan batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.356, 0.736 — Luis Rengifo batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.263, 0.716 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Sale.
- 0.319, 0.714 — Donovan Solano batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.318, 0.709 — Jackson Merrill batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.293, 0.707 — Amed Rosario batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.304, 0.700 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.324, 0.699 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Ross Stripling.
- 0.288, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Kenny Rosenberg.
There is decent agreement between the two systems today, with Arraez by far the best pick. Kwan and Rengifo tie for the consensus double down choice. Rengifo is one for eight since his return from the IL.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!