For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.315 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.313 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.308 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.308 — Jordan Westburg batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.304 — Gunnar Henderson batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.304 — Luis Arraez batting against Albert Suarez.
- 0.304 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.297 — Adley Rutschman batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.295 — Juan Yepez batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.295 — Steven Kwan batting against Kolby Allard.
Ramirez picked up his hitting since moving to the Nationals, hitting .333 with a .380 OBP in seventy one PA. It looks like a good day for the Orioles as Vasquez allows a .342 BABIP this season.
The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting a hit:
0.304, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting against Albert Suarez.
0.315, 0.728 — Harold Ramirez batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.295, 0.715 — Steven Kwan batting against Kolby Allard.
0.283, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Javier Assad.
0.289, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Joey Cantillo.
0.268, 0.711 — Jose Iglesias batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.278, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against River Ryan.
0.304, 0.705 — Luis Garcia batting against Miles Mikolas.
0.313, 0.702 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Randy Vasquez.
0.269, 0.694 — Jose Miranda batting against Alex Faedo.
It’s a very different list as O’Hearn is the only Orioles batter to reach the top ten. Ramirez comes out as the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.
A quick shout out to JoyceG, who now has a 45 game streak at Beat the Streak. That is the best of the 2024 season and tied for 19th best in the history of the game. Only 12 more games for the big prize!
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!