July 29, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these to projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Nationals offense as Montgomery allows a ton of hits this season. His K rate dropped about two per 9 IP compared to his previous two season. Combine that with a .346 BABIP, and he’s allowed 90 hits in 70 2/3 innings.

Note that the Blue Jays and Orioles play a traditional doubleheader this afternoon, and Eflin is scheduled to pitch the matinee. Miranda is listed as day to day after taking a pitch to the helmet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.320, 0.736 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.329, 0.734 — Harold Ramirez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.283, 0.711 — Steven Kwan batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.271, 0.710 — Jose Iglesias batting against Simeon Woods Richardson.
  • 0.312, 0.705 — Luis Garcia batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.281, 0.700 — Jose Miranda batting against Jose Quintana.
  • 0.252, 0.694 — Jose Altuve batting against Paul Skenes.
  • 0.286, 0.690 — Freddy Fermin batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.302, 0.687 — Juan Yepez batting against Jordan Montgomery.
  • 0.287, 0.686 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Zach Eflin.

Witt and Ramirez come in as the consensus double down picks. Witt is five for eight career against Flexen with a walk and no strikeouts. The Jrs sport ten game hit streaks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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