July 30, 2024

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:

Cannon is a low strikeout, low walk pitcher, so Witt should have a great chance of putting the ball in play against the White Sox starter.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:

  • 0.336, 0.742 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Jonathan Cannon.
  • 0.332, 0.740 — Harold Ramirez batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.324, 0.731 — Steven Kwan batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.306, 0.729 — Jose Iglesias batting against David Festa.
  • 0.297, 0.722 — Jose Altuve batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.245, 0.713 — Luis Arraez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
  • 0.312, 0.709 — Luis Garcia batting against Ryne Nelson.
  • 0.290, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting against Gerrit Cole.
  • 0.307, 0.703 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.282, 0.700 — Yainer Diaz batting against Bailey Falter.

The two systems agree on the top three. Witt currently owns an eleven game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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