For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The NN yields these to projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.347 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.327 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.313 — Amed Rosario batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.312 — Elias Diaz batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.310 — Donovan Solano batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.309 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.306 — Jackson Merrill batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.301 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.294 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.293 — Ryan Mountcastle batting against Carlos Carrasco.
The Rockies at the Padres looks like a game that will generate a lot of hits. Arraez stands 0 for 5 against Gomber in their careers, but with no strikeouts. Bogaerts is 3 for 13, also with no Ks. Tovar recorded a three for five against Vasquez.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.347, 0.767 — Luis Arraez batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.313, 0.721 — Amed Rosario batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.327, 0.713 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Randy Vasquez.
- 0.310, 0.710 — Donovan Solano batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.284, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Shane Baz.
- 0.283, 0.709 — Harold Ramirez batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.260, 0.707 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tyler Anderson.
- 0.262, 0.705 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tarik Skubal.
- 0.275, 0.704 — Steven Kwan batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.306, 0.703 — Jackson Merrill batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.280, 0.703 — Yainer Diaz batting against Shane Baz.
The two system agree on Arraez at the top with Rosario and Tovar equal in the double down category. Gomber may be a tough lefty for Arraez, so watch to see if the Padres star gets the night off. Arraez, Witt, and Bogaerts are all working on double digit hit streaks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!