For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.347 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.334 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.333 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.326 — Luis Arraez batting against Noah Davis.
- 0.321 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.320 — Steven Kwan batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.316 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.307 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.307 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.303 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.303 — Brendan Rodgers batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.303 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.
Witt is hitting .508 over a 15 game hit streak, tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and Colton Cowser for the longest in the majors currently. Guerrero is hitting .509.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.326, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Noah Davis.
- 0.347, 0.750 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.334, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.333, 0.737 — Yainer Diaz batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.320, 0.724 — Steven Kwan batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.321, 0.719 — Freddy Fermin batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.303, 0.715 — Amed Rosario batting against Mitch Spence.
- 0.292, 0.711 — Harold Ramirez batting against Aaron Civale.
- 0.316, 0.706 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.307, 0.700 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Zack Littell.
- 0.255, 0.700 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Soriano.
Arraez pops to the top of this list after not starting against a tough (on him) lefty Friday. Witt is the consensus top pick, with Altuve and Arraez tied for the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!