The Twins beat the White Sox 6-2 Saturday night to drop Chicago’s winning percentage to .239. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of them finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go 13-36 the rest of the way to beat the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 26 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 113 games is .319. The probability of no more than 13 wins at that level is 0.26. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.38. So the White Sox right now have about a 26% to 38% chance of finishing with no more than 40 wins. The probabilities rate of change is slowing, but the two probabilities are also converging They are looking at about a one if four change of no more than 40 wins on the season. They have now lost 19 in a row. Chicago also suffered a 14-game losing streak this season.

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -4 by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .357, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.12.