For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.332 — Jose Miranda batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.312 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.310 — Heliot Ramos batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.308 — Jose Iglesias batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.299 — Harold Ramirez batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.298 — Luis Garcia batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.295 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.294 — Ketel Marte batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.293 — Royce Lewis batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.293 — Kevin Newman batting against Logan Allen.
Miranda owns a .324 BA this season, and profiles as a batter who should collect lots of hits. His walk rate and strikeout rate are both low, and he owns a .351 BABIP this season. His main problem in 2024 is staying healthy.
Ramos is day to day with a sore thumb.
The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.308, 0.735 — Jose Iglesias batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.332, 0.730 — Jose Miranda batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.292, 0.722 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against James Paxton.
- 0.299, 0.716 — Harold Ramirez batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.286, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.298, 0.707 — Luis Garcia batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.285, 0.706 — Yainer Diaz batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.281, 0.701 — Steven Kwan batting against Zac Gallen.
- 0.295, 0.701 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.273, 0.697 — Amed Rosario batting against Aaron Nola.
Miranda ranks as the consensus top pick, with Iglesias the consensus double down choice. Iglesias and the Mets make a detour from the west coast to St. Louis to make up a rain out, then head to Colorado.
JoyceG owns the longest streak of the season and longest current streak at 49. The contestant needs eight more games for the jackpot!
Beat the Streak Advisor is another source of information.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!