For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.354 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.329 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.309 — Harrison Bader batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.308 — Amed Rosario batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.307 — Mark Vientos batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.304 — Freddy Fermin batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.297 — Jose Miranda batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.296 — J.D. Martinez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.295 — Luis Torrens batting against Kyle Freeland.
It looks like a good night for the Mets. Both Bader and Martinez have small sample of success against Freeland.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.354, 0.762 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.314, 0.750 — Luis Arraez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.329, 0.743 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.308, 0.717 — Amed Rosario batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.304, 0.711 — Freddy Fermin batting against Brayan Bello.
- 0.297, 0.710 — Jose Miranda batting against Shota Imanaga.
- 0.280, 0.702 — Steven Kwan batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.272, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Mahle.
- 0.292, 0.696 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jonathan Cannon.
- 0.281, 0.693 — Donovan Solano batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.309, 0.693 — Harrison Bader batting against Kyle Freeland.
Iglesias, for the second day in a row, is the top pick. Arraez and Witt tie for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!